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Progressive Neighbors Election 2024 Post-Mortem

Election Day was a disaster.  We kept getting told “That’s Not Who We Are,” but apparently that is who we are.  About a third of the country didn’t vote, about a third voted for Trump and a third for Harris, but Harris lost the popular vote and most of the swing states, even though the margins were small (1-2%).  Sexism, racism and xenophobia surely played a role in Harris’ loss.

We did score some victories like breaking the supermajority in the NC Legislature.  In Maryland we elected Angela Alsobrooks our next Senator and April McClain Delaney (narrowly).  We prevented a MAGA candidate’s election to the County School Board.  We passed Question 1 enshrining Reproductive rights in our constitution (Reproductive rights won in most places where it was on the ballot and even got a majority in Florida (57%), though they changed the rules and now require 60% for ballot initiatives.).  We did lose though (by 2 to 1) on Question A in Montgomery County preventing Marc Elrich from running for a third term.  We lost 3-4 Senate seats but could have lost several more.  If the Republicans hold on to the House, they will only have a narrow (about a 3 seat) majority which, this past term, has made the House almost ungovernable.  

Most Republicans who got reelected did so by narrow margins.  Scott Perry in PA CD10 won reelection by only 2% (about 6,000 votes).   While Harris/Walz raised a ton of money, lots of outside dark money groups weighed in, particularly at the last minute.  Harris ran a picture perfect campaign, though she had only 107 days to do it.  Tons of people volunteered, traveled out of state, canvassed, made phone calls, wrote postcards, donated money.  Everyone did much more than they ever had to help.  Jamie Raskin raised $2 million for Democracy Summer, trained about 1,000 college students to help campaigns all over the country and personally campaigned in 27 states.   It was truly inspiring.  Yet it wasn’t enough.

It’s OK and necessary to take some time to recover and for self-care.  We need to recuperate.  Then we need to reflect, analyze and reorient our strategies while focusing on resisting the Trump/Project 2025 agenda.  We have to maintain hope and persevere.  Here are a few things I hope for.

• Trump says climate change is a hoax, but his closest advisor Elon Musk believes in climate change and that electric cars are the future.  Could he convince Trump to retain some of the climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act?
• The money from the Infrastructure bill is going disproportionately to red states.  Local Representatives and Senators proudly touted the money they brought home and the new bridges and roads that will be created.  Are they ready to throw that all away?
• While Trump is ready to sell out Ukraine to Putin, several Republican Senators strongly back Ukraine and see the need to continue support for them.
• The war in Gaza is horrific and will get worse under Trump.  Those who voted against Harris because of the war (in Michigan Jill Stein got a substantial number of votes) should be motivated to exert enormous pressure on the new Administration to stop giving Netanyahu carte blanche.
• While Trump wants to increase fossil fuel production, even more than current levels, to lower fuel costs, fossil fuels are increasingly uncompetitive.  Solar, wind and geothermal costs are coming down rapidly.  Businesses will switch to the cheapest fuel, though the transition may not be as quick.  (How will his supporters react when he does not bring down the cost of gasoline to $1.87/gallon as he bragged?)
• Of the 53 Republican Senators, how many will break ranks in specific issues (a la John McCain) like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski?  It only takes 4 of them to stop legislation (like repeal of the Affordable Care Act) and they have nowhere near enough to prevent a filibuster.
• Are all these “free trade” market-oriented Republicans OK with huge tariffs or will some of them resist?
• Trump and Vance claim to be “family-friendly” and support expanding the child tax credit and giving support to family caregivers.  Will Republicans support such legislation?
• Musk proposes cutting $2 trillion from the Federal budget, which is impossible.
• On immigration, it will also be impossible to round up and deport 12 million people.  Businesses that rely on immigrant workers, like construction, hospitality, landscaping, and restaurants, will resist mass deportation efforts, which would also result in wages hikes and higher prices.
• On Reproductive rights, Trump has said he would veto a national ban and is the “Father of IVF.”  Of course he can’t be trusted, but I don’t see a national ban passing a filibuster and as several “red” states have enshrined reproductive rights in their state constitutions, I suspect Senators from those states might be reluctant to support a national ban.

Every time there is progress, there is a backlash.  And every time the Right takes charge they overreach.  The 2026 Senate map is more favorable to Democrats.  The House could be won back by flipping only a few seats.  Whiplash is inevitable as the pendulum swings back the other way. This election was a setback and a shocking one.  Most of us believed that given a choice between a hopeful qualified progressive candidate (who moved clearly to the center) and a convicted felon the choice would be obvious to most people.  Yet, the false narrative spun by the Right (stolen rigged elections, dangerous immigrants, rising crime, the worst economy, trans students taking over, they’re eating the dogs) prevailed.  One thing I think we have learned is that we have self-segregated geographically and in our media habits.    We all live in a bubble.  How many of us have friends or neighbors who have very different political views?  One thing we need to do moving forward is to start talking and listening to others and treating others as human beings and not “the enemy.” They may believe these false narratives, but we shouldn’t blame them.  Blame the right-wing media and corporate interests who propagate these lies.  White men voted overwhelmingly for Trump.  We need to figure out why and, as Bernie suggests, focus more on working class issues.

Meanwhile, we will continue to do the work, particularly at the local level where we have had a positive impact.  We have a lot of work to do.  Let’s get to it.  Don’t give up hope.  The successes we have had (ending the Vietnam War, the Women’s movement, the Environmental Movement, the LGBTQ+ Movement) all came from years of organizing and perseverance. We can do this together.